Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
